How Do Scientists Forecast the Birth of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms?

Question: How Do Scientists Forecast the Birth of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms?

Answer: Hurricane genesis is another way of saying “the birth of a hurricane”. In the wake of the devastation of Hurricanes Katrina, Andrew, and others, scientists are extremely interested in studying the formation of these violent storms at their origin. It is a long-held belief in science that to really understand a topic, you have to start at the beginning. Surprisingly, the location for the start of Atlantic hurricanes is in Africa.

A tropical cyclone is the common name given for hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions together. The benefit of understanding tropical cyclone origination is a better understanding of later development. In turn, meteorologists may be able to predict the path of a hurricane earlier and with more accuracy. This could lead to better evacuation times, better emergency team response times, and better general public safety. For a detailed explanation of hurricane formation, download the free Hurricane Fact Sheet.

Scientists Look at Africa for the Birth of Hurricanes

The general cause for tropical cyclones is somewhat known, although not entirely. Basically, a mass of very dry air called the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) forms over the Sahara Desert. The Saharan Air Layer picks up sand and dust particles which can act as cloud seeds as it continues movement westward toward the Atlantic. At the same time, the African Easterly Wave (AEW), precipitation system moves over the Atlantic and can cause a tropical cyclone to develop.

Right now, scientists are asking the ultimate question – How do the Saharan Air Layer and the African Easterly Wave mingle to create tropical cyclones? The answer lies 350 miles off the coast of Africa in the volcanic chain of islands known as the Cape Verde Islands.

To study the questions surrounding hurricane birth, NASA created the “NAMMA” campaign or NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA). This program has been designed to look at the origination point of Atlantic tropical cyclones. Scientists from multiple agencies including NASA, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and various universities have teamed up on the West Coast of Northern Africa.

Satellite data, weather station information, computer models and aircraft will provide scientists with details on exact atmospheric conditions that are ideal for producing hurricanes.