I previously wrote an article titled "The Warmest Year on Record" in which I outline the statistics for the hottest years on record for the United States. To date, since I wrote the article several years ago, there have been hundreds of references to the article. Some good...Others, not so good. The basic premise of the article is to outline the global temperature records scientists have accumulated so far. This is where the problem starts.
A systematic approach to obtaining global temperatures did not begin until the late 19th century. NOAA and the National Weather Service were getting off the ground at this time. Since the mid-1700s, people gathered weather data, but not with any real organization. Most was due to necessity for farming. For others it was curiosity. The actual National Weather Service did not officially begin until 1870. In the history of the National Weather Service, that means reliable information is only about 130 years old.
Before the Signal Service and the National Weather Service, a network of people recorded and cataloged temperature, precipitation, and pressure data for various locations. Herein lies the problem for many when reports of warm years become big news.
- It becomes a question of instrumentation accuracy. The precision and accuracy of the instruments comes into question.
- It becomes a question of time. Many argue that the "on record" portion of global climate data is too short to draw conclusions.
- It becomes a question of extrapolation. Temperatures prior to about 1880 require extrapolation and interpretation.
- It becomes a question of data station location. Analysis shows variations in data resulting from poor instrument locations, though scientists attempt to remedy the problem of station location all the time.
- It becomes a question of data comparison. Data collected from satellites and weather stations worldwide are compared to a baseline temperature average from 1951 to 1980.
Regardless of the reasons against supporting the data, there are inevitable conclusions to be drawn from the most recent conclusions for 2010. Simply put, temperatures are rising. A steadily increasing pattern can be seen in the data available. It is important to note that the data sets are analyzed by some of the world's top climate experts.
This is the most important point to remember. No one should argue the data. The data is accurate to the best of current abilities. In the future, we may look back and argue the data is shoddy. I am sure Ben Franklin did not think his weather data was grossly inaccurate. Today, problems with old data are often found. If you do have an argument, fight the conclusions drawn, not the data. Scientists consistently compare data sets to help remove outliers and to establish credibility for the data. The 2010 temperature data sets closely match others independently produced by the United Kingdom, Japan, and NOAA. The efforts of NASA are outlined in their .
Global Vs. United States Rankings
Global temperatures were hot. 2010 ranked as one of the hottest years on record. Conversely, in the United States, temperatures were normal. 2010 temperatures in the contiguous United States didn't even make the top ten. It ranks 23rd for the year. The hottest year in the United States was 2006.
The results, released on Wednesday January 12, 2010, analyzed and compared 2010 with recent years. The overall result is that 2010 statistically ties with 2005 as the warmest year on record for the globe. Coming in a close second are 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2007 and 2009. The long-term analysis shows temperatures have warmed approximately 0.36 F per decade since the late 1970s.
James Hansen, director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) suggests 2010 will not remain a contender for the title of warmest year on record for long. According to Hansen, "If the warming trend continues, as is expected, if greenhouse gases continue to increase, the 2010 record will not stand for long." For a stark reality check, look at this animation from the Goddard Science Visualization Studio - Global temperatures 1881 to 2009.
Other 2010 Climate Facts
The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) noted that the temperatures in 2010 are of interest because sea surface temperatures are used in the calculation of averages. With a strong La Nina, temperature and precipitation patterns changed dramatically. The Global Historical Climatology Network also ranked 2010 as the wettest year on record. This lead to devastating floods in locations worldwide, including Australia, Pakistan, and Brazil. The Pakistan floods were influenced by a shifting jet stream.
Hurricane season was also particularly strange in 2010. The number of hurricanes in the Pacific broke records because there were so few. The number of hurricanes in the Atlantic made 2010 a very active year, in contrast. The number of storms was influenced by the global ocean temperatures, which were higher than normal in the Atlantic, and lower than normal in the Pacific.
References:
2010 Tied for Warmest Year on RecordNASA Research on the Warmest Year on Record