Can You Trust the Hurricane Season Predictions?

NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) has officially predicted the 2007 hurricane season to be active with 15 to 17 named storms. This may (or may not) become a reality. In the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the National Hurricane Center and the National Climate Prediction Center again set out to use models in determining the likelihood of storms for the upcoming season.

The 2005 hurricane season was a record setting season with 27 named storms. (Later analysis of the year showed a possible 28th storm which was never named.) Watch a short video of the hurricane season from NASA.

Think about it...No one predicted a problem as immense as Katrina. (We could debate Katrina and the government response to it another time. Until then, tell me what you think on the message boards. Did the government know Katrina would be so intense? What do you think?)

Then came the 2006 season. This hurricane season was supposed to produce an above average number of storms. In reality, there were only 9 named storms, five of which were classified as hurricanes.

So what is the problem with predicting hurricane season outcomes?

Hurricane prediction and seasonal outlooks are extremely difficult to predict with a lot of accuracy. In the case of the 2006 season, the problem is partly due to El Nino conditions, African dust, and the Bermuda High. Each link will take you to a full explanation of these or you can read the full hurricane story from NASA.

Regardless of your reluctance to believe these predictions, this is the official Hurricane Preparedness Week and everyone is urged to be prepared. The key to staying alive and protecting your assets in a severe storm is education and preparation.

So...What will this year bring? Only time will tell...